BotBird2 — Kalshi BTC A/B Dashboard

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Backtest reference is loaded ↓ — live drift will populate once first orders settle.

🔔 Signal Funnel — 5-Variant A/B Session

Scoped to current bot session

Pipeline: Signal (strategy triggered) → Fired (passed gates, order sent) → Filled (Kalshi matched) → Settled (market closed) → Won/Lost. Cancellation typically means taker price was below market ask.

Total Signals

Fired

Blocked

Orders Filled

Per-Variant Funnel

Variant	Signals	Fired	Blocked	Placed	Filled	Fill %	Wins	Losses	WR %	PnL $

Each row = one A/B variant. executed = Kalshi confirmed fill. canceled usually means taker price was lower than the live ask (e.g. trigger cost $0.02 but ask at $0.03 → order sat unfilled, got canceled by timeout). Maker (mk-base) only counts as canceled if it never matched before max_age expiry.

📊 Backtest vs Live — Hourly Drift

BT: 80-day (1,845 hrs) · Live: rolling since first trade

Each hour ≈ independent sample (~18 closes/hr). Drift = (live - BT) / |BT|. ✓ match ≤30% · ⚠ drift 30-50% · 🔴 large >50% · ⏳ <5 settled

Variant	BT $/hr	BT Sharpe hourly ann	BT trades/hr said	Live trades/hr said	Live $/hr	Δ%	Live hrs	Live trades	Status
									✓ match ⚠ drift 🔴 large ⏳ ramping ⏳ waiting no BT

BT $/hr is 80-day OOS expectation. Live $/hr = realized settled PnL / hours elapsed since first trade. "Live hrs" includes idle hours (matches per-hour denominator).

Net P&L (Realized)

After $ fees

Orders Placed

filled ()

Active Variants

A/B testing in parallel

Time Live

🔔 Recent Signals (every trigger, fired or blocked)

Time	Ticker	Variant	Side	Cost	TTC	Decision	Reason / Order

Recent Trades

Time	Variant	Ticker	Side	Cost	Size	Mode	Status	Outcome	P&L

No trades yet.